Why low odds bets on Parimatch do not work over the distance

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It is much better for the Parimatch bettor to place bets that will increase the ROI rather than bets that have a high probability. Let’s look at a clear example.

Low bet are worse in a long run

The odds reflect the bookmaker’s view on the probability of an event occurring. These numbers can also help you determine how much your total will increase if you bet on that outcome. Let’s say a person has found sport bets with around 75-85% probability and makes a bet. Then he finds one more such option and bets again. After hundreds of such bets, he will face the fact that he is in the red. Why? Because it all depends on the odds.

If you place a bet on an event with high probability, on Parimatch Canada you will be in profit in the long run. This is not the case when the odds are very low, for example, down to 1.25. Let’s see why that is the case.

If you place 1000 bets with odds 1.2, which have 80% chance of winning (mathematically 20% will lose):

  • (800 bets played) * (odds 1.2) = 960 – 800 = 160.
  • As we lost 200 bets (the same 20%), we get the following: 160 – 200 = -40 (or -4% in ROI).

As you can see, even if you win 4/5 out of all bets, you are still going to lose money betting on sport. So, let’s see what is going to happen if you bet on a higher coefficient.

Positive Parimatch Canada ROI

The breakeven point for Parimatch Canada is 1.25. In this case, by making 1000 bets with an 80% probability of passage, we will get 200 in plus and lose 200 accordingly — in simple words, we will come to zero.

So, if we place a bet with 1.26, we are in the plus position at the distance, because we would get +208 for 1,000 bets, and would only lose -200. In that case, a bet with a 1.26 and an 80% chance of winning would be a bet with a positive mathematical expectation.

That is why in order to be successful at the distance you need to develop a model to follow. To do this you need to calculate the probability of teams winning on Parimatch beting site, what the total of goals is, etc. Then, having determined the probability of such events, you need to substitute them with the odds offered by the bookmakers and see if you end up with a positive ROI after betting on such an event.


A positive ROI is not always a measure of success on Parimatch. A positive ROI shows a positive expectation from a bet, in other cases, over a long distance, it may indicate that the player has only continually bet on matches with a high ROI while missing out on many profitable bets.

Buying predictions from people claiming to be a ‘capper is more often than not a scam. The market you place your bets on is very important – you must understand that if you place big bets, but with a ROI of one or two percent, you can earn more than if you place bets with a low bankroll, but with a ROI of around 5 percent. So long-range ROI is not an absolute indicator to judge whether or not a bettor is a professional trader.

It is never a good idea to chase a high return on sport bets. You have to analyse carefully, check the bookmakers’ odds, and compare what the expectation of the bet will be in the long run.